Employment Data Due on Friday

The market is expecting unemployment to rise ever so slightly from 9.4% to 9.5%. A lower than expected unemployment rate may be one more signal that the recession has hit bottom and the economy is turning around. A higher than expected rate could mean we are in for six more weeks of winter. No, wait, that's Puxatony Phil.

The employment report is considered the most timely and broad indicator of economic activity released each month. The average workweek is an important part of the employment report because it can be a determinant of personal income and a useful indicator of labor market conditions: a rising workweek may be the first indication that employers are preparing to boost their payrolls.

Why is this so important to credit union managers? Higher employment is likely to lead to what we will call a "normalization" of interest rates over the next year. If you are getting close to budget time, determining the direction of rates will go a long way towards providing you with a meaningful financial "road map" and help you plan for the coming year. Because interest expense is such a large line item, a wrong "guess" on interest rates can make a real difference in the accuracy and usefulness 0f your budget as a Board and management tool.

There is more information related to employment than you could ever want at http://stats.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm.